Magazine for the professional tire industry
Issue link: https://mtd.epubxp.com/i/630954
MTD January 2016 Tire shipments Te ups and downs from 1929 to 2015 D emand for replacement tires in the U.S. was steady throughout most of 2015 (last February doesn't count). However, retailers and wholesalers entered the year with healthy inventories, the result of trying to bypass the tariffs being levied on Chinese consumer tires. Add to that an abnormally mild winter, and a 1% decrease in re- placement passenger tire sales year-over-year is not unexpected (see Chart 1). In contrast, strong SUV and CUV sales were a big reason original equipment shipments rose nearly 4%. Te 48.1 million OE passenger tire shipments were the most since 2006. Te Rubber Manufacturers Association forecasts OE shipments will reach 50 million units. Light truck tire shipments were fat at the replacement level and down at the OE level. "OE shipments should increase 1% to 2% in 2016, with light truck tire volumes outpacing passenger due to low fuel costs causing a mix shif to the former," says Nick Mitchell, senior vice president of research for Northcoast Research Holdings LLC. "Replacement volumes will likely increase 1% to 3%, with the light truck segment outperforming, but only by a more modest margin." Service trailer (ST) tires are not included in either Mod- ern Tire Dealer's or the RMA's domestic passenger or light truck tire shipment numbers. Tey also are exempt from the tarifs on Chinese tires. An estimated 2.4 million rep lacem ent ST t i res are shipped annually (about 12 million trailers are registered). ST pricing generally ranges from around $18 (Chinese imports) to $130 (Goodyear), and sizes from 13 inches to 16 inches. The market is relatively steady, with 800,000 new trail- ers coming into the market ever y year. However, since RVs are expected to increase in number over at least the next year, the number of trailers that go with RVs will probably increase in number. Te manufacturer's warranty seems to be about six years (there is no mileage warranty), which matches the average replacement cycle of an ST tire. Historical shipment trends Replacement and OE passenger tire shipment trends over the last 85 years difer because the factors on which they are based difer. Replacement shipments are more cumulative because our population continues to grow, resulting in more vehicle registrations. In 2013, there were 256 million registered mo- tor vehicles. More than half of them were automobiles — not including pickup trucks. OE tire shipments, in contrast, are based solely on yearly vehicle production. With that said, historical events ofen afect trending for both in the same way (see Chart 2). During World War II, Facts section: shipments TOTAL 1952 1946 1942 1938 1932 1929 The Great Depression World War II Korean Confict Chart 1 U.S. UNITS SHIPPED 2011-2015 (in millions; imports included) PASSENGER TIRES Year Replacement OE 2015 204.5 48.1 2014 206.6 46.3 2013 201.6 44.0 2012 192.0 40.5 2011 196.5 36.0 LIGHT TRUCK (LT) TIRES 2015 29.0 4.6 2014 28.8 4.8 2013 28.3 4.4 2012 28.3 4.2 2011 28.6 4.1 MEDIUM/HEAVY TRUCK TIRES 2015 18.0 6.3 2014 17.3 5.8 2013 15.7 5.0 2012 16.0 5.3 2011 17.0 4.9 46