Magazine for the professional tire industry
Issue link: https://mtd.epubxp.com/i/244093
Facts section: Tire shipments Te signposts up ahead? Tire sales With the economy starting to pick up, there are many indications that 2014 will be a year to remember By Bob Ulrich I f the headline sounds familiar to my fellow baby boomers, it may remind you of the classic television series "Te Twilight Zone." "You're travelling through another dimension... a journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of imagination. Tat's the signpost up ahead — your next stop, the Twilight Zone!" In this case, there are multiple signposts indicating pent-up demand may be released in 2014. Te signs are not imagined. Passenger tire shipments were up 5% in 2013 vs. 2012, while light truck tire shipments remained stable (see Chart 2). Nick Mitchell, senior vice president for Northcoast Research Partners LLC, says "afermarket demand recovery" began prior to the fourth quarter of 2013, and carried through the Chart 1 2013 U.S. REPLACEMENT TIRE SALES (A $37.3 billion industry) Passenger tires: $25.0 billion Light truck tires: $4.9 billion Truck tires: $6.3 billion Farm tires: $560 million OTR tires: $590 million In 2012, U.S. replacement tire sales totaled $37.7 billion. end of the year. "We believe persistent tailwinds should drive continued expansion in early 2014." Bret Jordan, managing director and senior analyst for BB&T; Capital Markets, a division of BB&T; Securities LLC, also is optimistic about automotive and tire sales in early 2014. He says increased demand for maintenance, a trend that began in the fourth quarter of 2013, will continue to gain momentum in the U.S. He cites the following signs: • early inclement winter weather on the East Coast; • below historic mean November temperatures through most of the country; • a record high mean age of the vehicle feet; and • a growth in miles driven through the frst 11 months. "We believe the afermarket's most sluggish category post the Great Recession (i.e., tires) could also be poised for solid Chart 2 U.S. UNITS SHIPPED 2009-2013 (in millions) PASSENGER TIRES Year Replacement OE 2013 201.6 44.0 2012 192.0 40.5 2011 196.5 36.0 2010 198.7 34.6 2009 184.0 25.0 LIGHT TRUCK TIRES Chart 3 2013 REPLACEMENT PASSENGER TIRE MARKET (Based on 201.6 million units shipped) 2013 28.3 4.4 2012 28.3 4.2 28.6 4.1 28.0 3.5 2009 Other 62.2% 2011 2010 26.0 2.6 MEDIUM/HEAVY TRUCK TIRES Winter 2.3% 26 15.7 5.0 16.0 5.3 2011 17.0 4.9 2010 15.3 3.0 2009 UHP 17.4% 2013 2012 HP 18.1% The record for re p l a c e m e n t passenger tire units shipped is 205.8 million, set in 2005. The OE record is 61 million, set in 1999. 12.7 2.1 MTD January 2014